[OPINION / ANALYSIS] Will India Survive in Paris Climate Negotiation?

AVILASH ROUL

• First ever comment to the First Draft- which can be termed as Paris Protocol- came from India as ‘lopsided’ to bring climate justice, ‘inadequate’ for developing countries and ‘lenient’ to developed countries. Usually, after Bonn Intercessional Conference, which commence during June every year, the negotiation on climate change gets movement. However, this year it is the submission of national climate goals of countries as Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that have started posturing of the countries for the Paris Summit. As the major players and greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters have submitted their action points as INDCs, will the Paris Climate Summit be a milestone in fighting climate change in the 21st Century?

• French President would be more optimistic to lure on an elusive Paris Protocol after India’s entry on 1 October at UNFCCC portal. The synthesis report, which eagerly awaited India’s entry, is now under preparation to become the negotiating text of the Summit. Any legally binding protocol that includes major emitters will be strongly opposed by India, which has been its longstanding position. But, the first Draft of Protocol is hinting towards a binding agreement falling on India and other developing countries on which India has already reacted.

• Much-awaited and anticipated but least publicly consulted among the 119 INDCs submitted (till October 5) is India’s INDC, named as ‘working Towards Climate Justice’. It is ‘welcomed’ as a ‘promising’ document better than that of the ‘US and EU’. By invoking Gandhian ecology and Vedas in its INDC, which was tactically released to public on Gandhi’s birth anniversary, India has positioned itself advantageously for the meanest and toughest week-long negotiation at Paris Climate Summit (COP21). While India has postulated the right strategy for Paris negotiation, back home, it needs to streamline its grandiose plan with accountability and monitoring institutions at place. However, the green groups in India are surprisingly satisfied with the content of the INDC!

• Since June this year, major countries have been submitting its INDCs to address the impacts of climate change. Many such INDC communications will continue upto 2016. Among 194 member countries of COP, 147 agreed under the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) to ‘initiate or intensify’ domestic preparations as INDCs towards adopting a protocol in Paris.

• From the outset, India’s INDC has been very impressive but not path breaking. Those who have labeled India as being obstructionist since Copenhagen Summit or from prior COPs, would rather be cheerful of latter’s commitment of 33 - 35% reduction of emission by 2030 from 2005 levels. It may be ‘conservative’ emission reduction, but it is continuation of its Copenhagen voluntary pledge of 20-25% intensity reduction by 2020. The other major emitter - China, which submitted its INDC as ‘Enhanced Actions on Climate Change’ in June, had promised to lower its CO2 emissions by 60-65% by 2030 from the 2005 level.

• For 2015 Paris Agreement, at best a compromise declaration, India will pitch for establishing an ‘effective, cooperative and equitable global architecture based on climate justice’ and the principle of Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities. Before the official release of the INDC, Minister of Environment and Forest and Climate Change had argued for bringing ‘life style’ debate at Paris negotiations. Although India through G-77 and China successfully prioritized ‘un-sustainable patterns of consumption and production’ in Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI) adopted in 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, present national contradictions between ecological space and survival space of marginalized sections would rather backfire by questioning climate justice. India should reformulate its lifestyle argument as her northern neighboring country Bhutan has already Gross National Happiness (GNH). 

• The government has stage-managed world events tactfully to convey India’s climate action plan. During Sustainable Summit at Special Session of General Assembly in New York, Indian Prime Minister eloquently quoted Gandhi, as in INDC. For UNFCCC and international audience, the INDC, which is rationalized with Gandhian ecology, would definitely sound a bell. Nationally, successive governments have either abused or misused the spirit of ‘trusteeship’ as put forward in the INDC. Recent example is the manner in which Land Bill/Ordinances were being approved and later withdrawn.

• The impressive low carbon path, which espouses nuclear power and hydropower among other non-fossil fuels, will face a firm opposition on the ground due to its severe social and environmental consequences. To reach the potential in hydropower, India needs withdrawal of Supreme Court’s stay order on hydropower in Uttaranchal, implementing controversial Inter Basin Water Transfer (famously known as Interlinking of Rivers). Most importantly, a tussle on Brahmaputra with China to harness massive hydropower as well as recent foreign policy failure in Nepal, which is potentially a source of major hydropower for India, would be major hurdles. Similarly, nuclear power of India is completely dependent on the decision of Nuclear Supply Group (NSG), which has not given a go signal yet. Most of foreign trips of Indian PM which linked to get Uranium supply uninterrupted have not transformed into reality. Reputation of Clean coal technology of its cleanliness will continue a debating instrument in coming days too.

• Aware of being cornered during Paris negotiation, India has been working behind closed doors with few most vulnerable Island nations and Like Minded Developing Countries. Through Forum for India-Pacific Island Cooperation (FIPIC), India has reached out to most vulnerable countries on climate change which can be helpful during Paris Summit. Unlike in 2009, India has yet to forge a common SAARC statement for Paris. Among powerful BASIC group, China has already moved ahead in the group. The newly formed Vulnerable 20 (V20) had just completed a huddle in Peru devising a financial mechanism to support and sustain each other. India’s call for financial obligation for developed countries may get a support from V20 but finance transferring to India for its $2.3 trillion demand would face fractured mandate. Five SAARC countries are member of V20 which will have a tremendous role during Paris Negotiation.

• All member countries will be meeting at Bonn during October 19-23 to continue negotiation on the First Draft. India would like to rush ahead making partners to convey its reservations on the first Draft. The so-called ‘national interests’ of sovereign nations have jeopardized the effort to protect, preserve and manage ‘commons’. Fighting climate change has become victim of such parochial notions. India’s INDC may dispel its image of being an obstructionist during Paris talks, but India, like other major GHG emitters, won’t let down its national interest sooner. Thus, all eyes are set on the upcoming most crucial COP of 21st Century. 

Dr Avilash Roul, Senior Fellow at Indo-German Center for Sustainability, IIT- M, Chennai

Source: sspconline.org

[OPINION / ANALYSIS] India, Mongolia: Spiritually Connected Powers of Asia

On May 16 Prime Minister Narendra Modi would twit: ‘First Indian Prime Minister is visiting Mongolia after 60 years of our diplomatic relation’. If China is repositioning itself in the Silk Route (ancient India was a major link too) through larger economic thrust, India has to travel in the same breadth and length with the teachings and philosophy of Buddhism in North and East Asia, as Buddhism flourished prior to the Silk Route era. At last, the 21st Century Parivarjaka (wanderer) has arrived in the majestic land of Chinggiz (Genghis) Khan with a Bodhi tree sapling in his hand and a promise that ‘Asia, being the land of Buddha, has the responsibility to ensure that this is a century free from war’.

On February 19, 2015, Modi already broke the ice by wishing TsagaanSar (Lunar New Year) greetings to citizens of Mongolia. Most strikingly, he sent his wishes through twitter and in Mongolian language to reach out in particular to the tech savvy young generation of Mongolia. He is targeting 70 per cent of the 2.9 million populations below the age of 30 in Mongolia through social media. The country is also celebrating its 25 years of democratic rule. As the large section of Mongolians look towards India as a ‘spiritual nucleus’ with vibrant democracy and robust peoples power in terms of thriving civil societies, the Mongolian Premier Chimed Saikhanbileg is opening the Parliament (Great Khural) on Sunday for the legislators to listen to the Indian Prime Minister.

Mongolia, the landlocked rugged terrain engulfed by Gobi Desert in south and Steppe with abundant minerals and vastly nomadic population yet spiritual, should not be looked at only through narrow prism of China’s periphery. A general Indian perception of Mongolia ends with Genghis Khan and to some extent with his grandson, Kublai Khan. The Indian establishment usually boasts that India and Mongolia have interacted through Buddhism over a period of 2600 years. But overall bilateral relation potential is limited to mere exchanges of high level delegations, mostly from Mongolian side. The trade between the two countries has fallen below $16 million in 2014 compared with $60 million in 2012. The two countries have shared economic ties since 1996 when the Trade and Economic Cooperation agreement was signed, which provides Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to each other.

While security and foreign policy experts in India have put the geo-strategic position of Mongolia to the backburner for the last two decades, this sudden one-day visit will transform the strategic location in North East Asia. Modi’s stopover in Ulaan Bator after China visit is a good indication in both accounts. Engaging with China’s neighbor independent of it will put more leverage in India’s basket while dealing with China. Also, the visit symbolizes the substance that three nation trip is a responsible regional approach for Act East Asia foreign policy. But in practical term, as the Prime Minister argues that it is cost effective to add nations which are important for India’s aspiration of global power in one leg of the tour to maximize outcome.

Last year in December, a Mongolian delegation from General Authority of Border Protection (GABP) met with Home Ministry and Indian Border Security Force (BSF) in Delhi. India is expecting to conduct a joint exercise as both border forces have common aim of securing border with China.

On the other hand, India has featured importantly in Mongolia’s ‘third neighbor’ policy, which includes US, South Korea and Japan. There is also mutual trust and reciprocity visible at all international forums between the two countries, which can be categorized as warm and complimentary. India proposed Mongolia's candidacy for membership of the United Nations in 1961 despite opposition from Taiwan and China and also in Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Similarly, Mongolia has been supporting India’s inclusion as a permanent member in the UN Security Council.

Another potential aspect of Modi’s visit is prospects of mines and minerals, including uranium and coal. Mining is a necessary evil for resource rich Mongolia. The contradiction of mining in the country is that even with nearly 32 per cent population living below the poverty line and lacking access to basic infrastructure facilities and social protections, the country posted 15-17 % annual economic growth rate two years back due to largely mining activities in gold and copper. In 2012, the Steel Authority of India (SAIL) inked a joint venture with the Mongolian government to set up iron ore and coal mines in the country. This has yet to be implemented on ground. At present, India-Mongolia has a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on civil nuclear cooperation (2009), according to which Mongolia can supply uninterrupted uranium for growing nuclear energy appetite of India. The domestic law in Mongolia for mining is yet to operationalise this MoU. The Indian Prime Minister’s visit will ensure possible progress in both these aspects.

With mining, there comes environmental degradation. Both countries are facing similar situation of irresponsible and unsustainable mining. The largest OyuTolgoi gold and copper mining in Gobi Desert being developed by notorious Rio Tinto has been tremendously affecting environmental and social fabric in Mongolia. Both countries could learn from their experiences in mining and India can extend a helping hand to establish robust legal framework on mining prospects in Mongolia. India can also extend its knowledge on building institutional capacities on environmental protection. It is right to point out that India has encouraged prospect of renewable energy by establishing solar electrification in Dadal Soum. With its successful achievements domestically in wind energy, India should tap the potential created by 2007 Renewable Energy Policy of Mongolia.

Modi would most likely speak on his favorite topic of skill development while delivering a speech in Parliament of Mongolia. India’s role would be more vital in developing tourism infrastructure in that country although there is minimal people-to-people contact between the two countries. It is also important for Modi to observe the constructive role played by Mongolian Civil society Organizations (CSOs) in governing the country. Since 2011, President of Mongolia has approved of and provided the Citizen Hall at the President’s Palace for annual tripartite dialogue amongst government, CSOs and donor agencies on important economic policies of the government.

It won’t be surprising to see Modi exchanging few Hindi words with the chief monk of Gandantegchinlen Monastery (Great Place of Complete Joy) in Ullan Bator. The mesmerizing chanting by young students at the Monastery who wouldn’t hesitate to take a selfie with the Indian Premier as they look at India as their spiritual home. The echo of largest and biggest bell gifted by India near the UNESCO heritage site at Karakorum in Gobi Desert reminds all of us the spiritual bond between the two countries. As Buddhist teaching points towards living with nature as against fast paced consumerism in terms of Gross National Happiness (GNH), India and Mongolia will be looking towards to achieve this sustainable development goal in 21st Century.

Written By: AVILASH ROUL

Source: sspconline.org